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by Dr Thomas J Healy, CMB

Government Borrower Behavior

Wednesday, April 24, 2024

Government borrower behavior seems to have changed dramatically in the last two months. The graph above shows normalized actual prepay speeds by loan age for each of the last 12 months, on all GNMA loans. While there has always been a spike after the refi-restricted first six month period has elapsed, the spike has grown tremendously in both magnitude and duration (indicated by the gray box).  We’re eager to next look at April’s data to see if this is an aberration, or the beginning of a trend.

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